RE: What am I missing?

From: Glenn Morton (
Date: Mon Aug 26 2002 - 09:01:01 EDT

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    The important issue is not reserves over production (R/P). That is never the
    case. RATE of production is everything. The fact is that we will be
    producing oil 300 years from now but we will be producing insignificant
    quantities of it. When a field comes on line it produces at it's maximum
    rate for a short while (just how long depends on the field and how many
    wells are put into it). But as the oil comes out of the ground, pressure in
    the reservoir drops and the oil flows more slowly. The decline in the flow
    rate is exponential. This means that it takes longer to get the oil out of
    the ground than the initial R/P indicates. That is why people who calculate
    how long oil will last by means of R/P are so wrong.

    We do various things attempting to keep the flow up. We drill wells which
    inject water into the field in order to replace the voidage of oil which has
    been produced and to repressurize the field. But what happens in practice
    is that the pressure comes up but we begin to produce more and more water.
    In the North Sea we now produce 80-90% water and only 10% oil. The Forties
    Field, here in the UK, produces 17 million gallons per day of water now,
    about what Houston, Texas uses in a single day. Since the production pipes
    into the ground have a fixed capacity if we fill it with mostely water
    rather than oil, we get less oil out of the ground.

    What the world faces is a drastic drop in the rate of oil production and an
    inability to improve it.


    for lots of creation/evolution information
    personal stories of struggle

    >-----Original Message-----
    >From: Walter Hicks []
    >Sent: Sunday, August 25, 2002 3:42 PM
    >To: Glenn Morton
    >Subject: What am I missing?
    >Glenn Morton wrote:
    >> 4. BP statistical review of world energy 2002 states that the US
    >uses about
    >> 20 million barrels per day. The US imports 12 million bbl/day, only 2.9
    >> million from the Middle east.
    > download
    >> the excel spreadsheet.
    >In reading the excel spreadsheet, I think that it says (2001) that
    >the world's
    >proved reserves of oil was 1.05*10^12 barrels, while the oil usage
    >was 74.5*10^6
    >barrels daily. I compute 1.05*10^12/(365*74.5*10^6) as being 38.6
    >years worth of
    >proven reserves with no new discoveries.
    >What am I missing Glenn?
    >Walt Hicks <>
    >In any consistent theory, there must
    >exist true but not provable statements.
    >(Godel's Theorem)
    >You can only find the truth with logic
    >If you have already found the truth
    >without it. (G.K. Chesterton)

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