>From: Shuan Rose [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
>Sent: Wednesday, May 22, 2002 2:53 PM
>To: Glenn Morton; email@example.com
>Subject: RE: Middle East oil supply
> Well, Glenn, what do YOU think we should do? Go up in the
>start raising goats? :) I read you web article, but is there anything that
>we could do to either change the current policy, or failing that, survive
No Shuan, I don't like goats--they are smelly. What we should do, is pour
money into fusion research. But as my friends in the nuclear industry will
tell you, the only thing consistent about nuclear fusion is that it is
always 50 years away. Thus, we must stretch our oil supply as far as we can
to give us enough time to solve that problem. To pretend that this issue
won't over take the world is to ignore history of country after country.
I got into the oil industry in 1973. This was merely 2 years after the US
lower 48 peaked its production. Even with 4500 rigs going in 1980, we
couldn't turn that decline around. When we have pumped out half of the oil
the earth holds, the production rate will begin to decline. The big
argument today is over when that point is. Some say it might not happen
until 2020. Most say this decade. Even if it doesn't happen til 2030, we
still NEED to solve the fusion problem.
The world will have to go to coal for a while, and natural gas will become a
larger part of the energy mix. They will prolong the true day of reckoning
for a few years, but at environmental costs. And there are some who say by
2040 the US coal reserves will cost more energy to extract than you get out
in useful work.
One thing I am convinced of is that there will never be a hydrogen economy.
There are no hydrogen mines.
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