Middle East oil supply

From: Glenn Morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Wed May 22 2002 - 09:24:23 EDT

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    There is a new report out by Simmons and Company which basically says that
    we will not be able to count on Middle Eastern oil supply in the future. The
    reason for this is demographic. The Middle East population is growing
    rapidly and will require the internal use of much oil and gas just to take
    care of their population. The report notes that just meeting water needs for
    40 million people will require a huge jump in energy use. Today Saudi Arabia
    has slightly over 20 million people. Within a generation, that could easily
    double given their birth rates. (Osama had something like 50 siblings).
    Thus, the oil won't be so easily exportable from a political point of view,
    even assuming it is there. The Saudi Arabian fields average 45 years old
    with two of the largest over 54 years old. Those fields are showing signs of
    their age. Old fields don't produce rapidly.

      The report points out that Shaybah is the first large field Saudi has
    developed for years and it cost between $2.5 and $3.5 billion to develop.
    It will produce at peak production 500,000 barels/day. That is $5,500 per
    peak barrel. Other Middle eastern fields which await development will
    require anywhere from $7,500 to $11,400 per peak barrel. While the over all
    economics of the fields are great, the amount of oil per day for the world,
    the rate of flow is not great for that investment.

    The report is
    The Middle East: The Energy Solution Or The Energy Problem?

    For those who think we have a rosy energy future, take another think.


    see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information
    personal stories of struggle

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