RE: tidbits on oil

From: Glenn Morton (
Date: Sun Jan 20 2002 - 01:05:25 EST

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    The problem with all the alternative energy sources I have looked at is that
    they can't come anywhere near providing the energy which oil gives us. And I
    agree that the funding for alternatives, especially fusion, is far too
    little. We need to fund fusion research and solve that because that is the
    real answer as I see it.
      -----Original Message-----
      From: []On
    Behalf Of Walter Hicks
      Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2002 12:44 PM
      To: Glenn Morton
      Cc: Jack Haas;
      Subject: Re: tidbits on oil

      Interesting analysis --- and rather frightening. I've heard of another
    possible energy source, OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). The web site goes into a discussion of U.S. activities. The
    U.S. seems to be funding some research in the area but it does not seem to
    be very substantial.

      Glenn Morton wrote:

         Hi Jack,For the UK, it is predicted that within 3 years they will be a
    net importer of natural gas. They already have the gas interconnector to
    Norway ready to go. Eventually the UK and Europe will depend upon Algeria
    and Russia for their supplies of natural gas. Expect there to be less close
    ties to the US.I don't know the 2001 oil consumption figure for the UK but
    in 1998, they consumed 1.78 million bbl/day. Even if that rate had remained
    constant, the UK is now producing only 2.2 million bbl/day. If we continue
    with a 15% decline rate, we will be importing oil before I come back to the
    States in a year and a half.The implications of this are that the taxes
    collected on this oil will be in serious decline putting pressure on social
    services. I have a friend whose husband is an economist over here and he
    says that this is the last generation of Brits who will have the social net
    that they have. However, the British government gets $96 dollars per barrel
    in taxes off of oil (not just UK oil). This will have to rise to make up the
    extra taxes they are able to collect from the North Sea.Jobs will decrease
    in the oil industry so Scotland will feel that pinch, especially Aberdeen.
    They will have to find new industries to live off of. Fishing is
    practically dead and farming in this country is not very lucrative. Once
    again, I would point people to my web
    page for a
    fuller discussion of the implications of running out of oil.
          -----Original Message-----
          From: Jack Haas []
          Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 11:38 PM
          Subject: Re: tidbits on oil

             Glenn,Do you have any comment on the economic effect on the UK of
    the continuing decrease in oil production that you report?Jack Haas
                -------Original Message-------

                From: Glenn Morton
                Date: Saturday, January 19, 2002 06:54:27
                To: Asa@Calvin. Edu
                Subject: tidbits on oil
                 While the current recession, fear of flying and a relatively
    warm winter
                have drastically dropped the demand for oil, the long term
    picture still
                does not look great. Opec's reserves as a percentage of world
                continues to climb. Reserves are the amount of producible oil
    still in the
                ground. Here is the data
                1980 Opec had 60% of world reserves
                1990 Opec had 76% of world reserves
                2001 Opec has 79% of world reserves

                They are growing because the rest of the world is pumping out
    their reserves
                as is happening in the UK. The Guardian this week wrote:

                “The drop in crude output for the second year running confirms
    that Britain
                as an oil nation reached its peak in 1999 when it produced 2.8 m
    barrels a
                day. Output fell to 2.6 m barrels in 2000 and has plunged a
    precipitous 15%
                to 2.2 m over the last 12 months.” “Buzzard’s boost,” The
    Guardian Jan 18,
                2002, p. 23


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      Walt Hicks <>

      In any consistent theory, there must
      exist true but not provable statements.
      (Godel's Theorem)

      You can only find the truth with logic
      If you have already found the truth
      without it. (G.K. Chesterton)

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