RE: tidbits on oil

From: Glenn Morton (
Date: Sat Jan 19 2002 - 17:22:55 EST

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    Hi Jack,

    For the UK, it is predicted that within 3 years they will be a net importer
    of natural gas. They already have the gas interconnector to Norway ready to
    go. Eventually the UK and Europe will depend upon Algeria and Russia for
    their supplies of natural gas. Expect there to be less close ties to the

    I don't know the 2001 oil consumption figure for the UK but in 1998, they
    consumed 1.78 million bbl/day. Even if that rate had remained constant, the
    UK is now producing only 2.2 million bbl/day. If we continue with a 15%
    decline rate, we will be importing oil before I come back to the States in a
    year and a half.

    The implications of this are that the taxes collected on this oil will be in
    serious decline putting pressure on social services. I have a friend whose
    husband is an economist over here and he says that this is the last
    generation of Brits who will have the social net that they have. However,
    the British government gets $96 dollars per barrel in taxes off of oil (not
    just UK oil). This will have to rise to make up the extra taxes they are
    able to collect from the North Sea.

    Jobs will decrease in the oil industry so Scotland will feel that pinch,
    especially Aberdeen. They will have to find new industries to live off of.
    Fishing is practically dead and farming in this country is not very

    Once again, I would point people to my web page for a fuller
    discussion of the implications of running out of oil.
      -----Original Message-----
      From: Jack Haas []
      Sent: Friday, January 18, 2002 11:38 PM
      Subject: Re: tidbits on oil

            Do you have any comment on the economic effect on the UK of the
    continuing decrease in oil production that you report?
            Jack Haas

            -------Original Message-------

            From: Glenn Morton
            Date: Saturday, January 19, 2002 06:54:27
            To: Asa@Calvin. Edu
            Subject: tidbits on oil

            While the current recession, fear of flying and a relatively warm
            have drastically dropped the demand for oil, the long term picture
            does not look great. Opec's reserves as a percentage of world
            continues to climb. Reserves are the amount of producible oil still
    in the
            ground. Here is the data

            1980 Opec had 60% of world reserves
            1990 Opec had 76% of world reserves
            2001 Opec has 79% of world reserves

            They are growing because the rest of the world is pumping out their
            as is happening in the UK. The Guardian this week wrote:

            “The drop in crude output for the second year running confirms that
            as an oil nation reached its peak in 1999 when it produced 2.8 m
    barrels a
            day. Output fell to 2.6 m barrels in 2000 and has plunged a
    precipitous 15%
            to 2.2 m over the last 12 months.” “Buzzard’s boost,” The Guardian
    Jan 18,
            2002, p. 23


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