Climate Shocks

Allen Roy (
Sun, 21 Mar 1999 20:36:12 -0700

In persuit of determining the effect that a series of asteroid impacts
might have on the atmosphere. I looked up some books at the local
University (NAU).

I found "Climate Shocks: Natural and Anthropogenic" by Kondratyev, K. Ya.
Translated from Russian by Kostrova, 1988. This has proven to be a very
interesting book. Just consider a quote from the forward by William M.
Kellogg, Senior Scientist, (Retired), Natural Center for Atmospheric

"The third general area that I will mention will be of particular interest
to the growing cadre of global climate modelers who are concerned with the
'greenhouse effect' of increasing carbon dioxide and other
infrared-absorbing trace gases. Kondratyev, an expert on radiative
transfer in the atmosphere, understands very well what theoreticians at
home and abroad are saying about the global warming in store for the erath.
However, he prefers to remain a bit skeptical about all those forecasts of
a drastic climate until we know more about the system with which we are
dealing. He warns that there may be some "aintigreenhouse effects' that
have not been adequately recognized. ... Said Kondratyev to his editor:
There has been 'too much orthodoxy in the CO2 and climate problem and
irrsponsible predictions of climate change. I am glad the situation has
greatly changed recently in this respect.' " pg. viii.

Then Kostrova says on pg 19, "Despite numerous efforts in numerical
modeling of CO2's climatic impact, the level of understanding of the
problem still remains insufficient. Until now, all studies have
demonstrated a well-known scenario: an increase in carbon dioxide
concentrations intensifies the greenhouse effect, which, in turn, leads to
a global climate warming. It has been known for some time, however, that
this simple scenario is a crude approach to estimating the greenhouse
effect due only to CO2 and is far from realistic. Many unsolved problems
connected with different aspects of the physics of climate change remain,
particularly as they concern consideration of the effects of oceans and
clouds. Of particular importance is water vapor, which contributes much to
the formation of the greenhouse effect. Therefore, an account of the
feedbacks that permit an adequate simulation of water vapor dynamics in the
course of climate change is essential."

I realize that this book is now 11 years old, but it states what I have
felt all along. So many of those anti-catastrophist computations are
simply inadequate and do not allow for possible effects which counter the
supposed overheating effects.