# Rational Method for Identifying Super Natural II

SHinrichs9@aol.com
Sat, 23 Jan 1999 08:04:25 EST

You were so quick to reply to my first note then I pointed out why I thought
your response did not apply to my article. In fact one main point of my
article is to make sure the probability calculation is conservative unlike
many of the unconservative probability calculations presented by Christian
apologist. I have not seen my approach presented before, but I do think it is
appropriate, so I am curious what other people think once they understand the
approach. Do you mind me asking you to study my article
(http://members.aol.com/SHinrichs9/spntid.htm) and try to understand why I
think my approach is conservative and then tell me if you agree or not and
why?

I hope you do not mind me asking you to check out the details. In fact I read
amino acids alerted me to a compelling argument for common descent. I pursued
this point further and looked up a lot of DNA sequences and did my own
comparisons and discovered compelling evidence for common descent which made
me make the transition to theistic evolution which I documented in an article
(http://members.aol.com/SHinrichs9/descent/descent.htm) on my web site in case
you are interested.

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Actually, I do not think your example applies to my article. In your case S =
A = 10^67; thus, I would calculate P1=1 not 10^-67. Now if success was defined
not by just achieving any configuration, but one specific configuration out of
all possible then S=1, A=10^67 then P1=10^-67. I realize many apologist use
unconservative means for determining "S". I would hope before you further
criticize my article that you would understand the conservative way I propose
to calculate S. Read my Daniel Messiah in the Critic's Den
(http://members.aol.com/SHinrichs9/critic7.htm) to see a good example of the
conservative calculation. It may be the first time you have seen the use of
such a conservative approach.

P = N * P1, P1 = S / A
P: Conservative estimate of probability
N: Conservative estimate of number of attempts
P1: Conservative estimate of probability for one attempt
S: Conservative estimate of possible successful configurations
A: Conservative estimate of all possible configurations

In a message dated 1/10/99 7:23:36 PM Pacific Standard Time,
grmorton@waymark.net writes:

> When you shuffle a deck of cards they can be shuffled in 10^67 different
> ways. Thus the order of the deck you have, has a probability of occurrence
> of 10^-67.
>
> Thus the order of your deck of cards didn't happen.
>
> One can't calculate probabilities easily after the fact.
>
> Thus low probability cases do not infallibly point to God.
> glenn