There's only one data set, so let's do some thought-experiments.
Imagine what might have happened, knowing what we do about astrophysics and
prebiotic evolution and organic evolution, if we "ran the program" (or "ran
the tape," as suggested by Gould in "Wonderful Life") using "Matter in
Unsupervised Motion" for 1000 runs each, for these three parts of natural
from the Big Bang to the formation of Earth,
from Earth to the first 1-celled animal, and
from a 1-celled animal to the present (with humans,...).
Don't protest that "Matter in Unsupervised Motion" is impossible; this is a
*thought-experiment* done to test the 3-way compatibility between
philosophical materialism (which claims that only MIUM occurred) based on
materialistic science (which assumes that only MIUM occurred), and what we
observe, and various theories of theistic evolution (TE).
With a many-universe scenario, "anything goes" with all concern for
plausibility being discarded -- because with an infinite number of
universes, even if the odds are zero (1 in a zillion raised to the
zillionth power raised to the zillionth power raised to the zillionth power
raised to.....) it is OK -- and these experiments are meaningless.
But with one universe, the following questions are meaningful.
If all 1000 runs produce exactly what God wanted (as in Loren's TE-3b2
with "Determined Outcome") for the characteristics of Earth and its
inhabitants, TE is consistent with materialistic science, with no need to
postulate any deviation from materialistic theories of evolution
(cosmological, chemical, or organic). Do you think (your best guess, based
on current-theories or YETI-theories) that an "exactly as wanted" outcome
would occur in each of the runs? in most runs? some? none?
If all 1000 runs produce something "close enough" to what God wanted (as
in Loren's TE-3b3 with "Flexible Outcome"), then TE is consistent with
MIUM-only evolution -- if God did not aim for a specific outcome. Do you
think a "close enough" outcome would occur in all runs? most? some? none?
Of course, similar thought-experiments are often done in evolutionary
science, with conditions varying, depending on goals and context. When a
theological/teleological dimension is added, thought-experiments can be
useful for thinking about the questions summarized by Loren in my previous
TD#1 post, re: the relative contributions from 1, 2, 3 and 4, according to
"functional integrity" and other theories of theistic evolution and